Dow @ 17,000...

pitdog

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Crapshoot said:
I'm playing those numbers

So is my thinking correct. Fed QE buys all bonds, no one else buys US debt, limited options on where the money that would have gone to bonds can flow. So the money flows to the stock market and the market rises. But it would have never gone up if the Fed didn't QE. Is there any historical examples where a country can just print it's way out of debt? The historical examples I find all lead to the fiat currency crashing. I never thought I'd live to see the day the dollar crash but now I'm not so sure
The theory is to reduce interest rates so banks will lend, which increases the money supply. QE also will reduce the value of the dollar and in theory it attracts foreign investors to the US stock markets and makes US exports relatively cheaper.

BUT... That's under normal easing. What we have seen is a MASSIVE expansion of the "normal" operations of the Fed OMC. So being in this unprecedented position with the current global economic condition, it's hard to say what the outcome will be. Yes, it scares the heck out of me but, we're actually in better shape than most countries - if that's any consolation.

You could buy gold, but if we have a meltdown, no one will be able to buy it from you... I think I would rather have livestock and a garden larger than PaulC's. :smiley-yellow:
 

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But the banks didn't lend. If they did lend I think that theory works. But if they do not lend and all the " bank owned" (owned from the bailout money from all taxpayers) for example gets sold to hedge funds how does that help the economy as a whole? The banks used the money to help their own positions....buying the Bank of Guatamala instead of lending it out...All this printing....out of thin air...and the Fed gets interest on money that's printed out from nothing......Taxes all Americans pay going to pay interest owed to the Fed

It just seems to me QE artificially inflates the stock market. Couple that with the fact retires do not have pensions but 401k directly linked to the market and these funds have to be taken out by all the boomers. The rise will still occur but the fall will be spectacular
 

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It's known as "the scam of the century". Borrowing from the window with no interest and taking that money and buying bonds with it. Free interest!

It is true that banks have much higher lending standards but the discount rate is zero and they don't need to lend as long as they get their money for nothing...

Found an article about the Russian squeeze: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-fall-more-just-093534986.html
I'm surprised the Obama admin allowed them to publish it.
 

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Crapshoot said:
So how long until the DJIA gets above 17,000 again?
Hard to say. I'm actually a little bummed that we didn't get a better correction. I'm watching the international markets. Europe is looking weak and it's making traders nervous.
 

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Crapshoot said:
I see 17,000 more likely than 15,000

Where do you think the market would be without QE?
That's a loaded question. How about asking where do I think the market would be w/out Obama? America wastes hundreds of billions of dollars every year on unnecessary crap. We could easily have a surplus, but blatant corruption, greed, altruism and stupidity have us circling the financial drain.

Here's what I believe would have happened under a MY leadership:

1) All failing businesses (the auto industry, financials, etc..) would have been forced into bankruptcy in lieu of a bailout. They would have re-organized and got rid of the unions. - Result; The entire auto industry would be thriving like never before.

2) Banks would NOT have received a bailout. Their assets would have been sold to one of the MANY banks who refused to get involved in the sub-prime game. FDIC would have paid all the depositors and would have been the only entity that received a bailout. - sorry mega banks, you F'ed up.

3) No more taxpayer dollars would be spent on junk science. We waste hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars on crap like the $387,000 to provide rabbits with a relaxing daily massage. (no joke, I read this yesterday). The global warming scam is probably going to be remembered as the biggest lie ever perpetuated in the history of mankind and it's costing more money every day we allow these pin-heads to continue. Wanna take a stab at how much we wasted there? Think big and then multiply it by 100 and you may be close.

4) Seal off our boarders, utilizing the full power of our armed forces and let the chips fall where they may in the middle east and far east. F' those islamic dirty bastards! My sons life is worth more than all of their natural resources combined.
Fine anyone or business $25k for hiring an illegal alien. Second offense, will be treated as treason. Cut all financial programs for illegals and their kids. If they came here illegally and had a kid, we'll send them both back... No more BS citicenship reward for breaking the law! Make those on welfare do the jobs of the illegals and get a Gov't subsidy, ONLY if you work (applies to able bodied people only). Have a second baby while on welfare? Tough chit, you get no increase.

5) Have a complete audit of every tax-dollar spent and cut ALL of the unnecessary expenses, programs and jobs. Here's a few I would start with: http://posey.house.gov/wasteful-spending/
If you haven't read Tom Coburn's "Wastebook 2014" you really need to. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cagw-praises-sen-coburns-wastebook-2014-2014-10-22

So with all of that implemented, right after my 2008 election, today we would have a massive surplus, the S&P would be somewhere near 5,000, the hundreds of billions that are wasted on the global warming scam would be cut and some would be redirected to green technology. Right now the green technology has not caught up with the ambition and that's a costly mistake. The break-even date in the wind power and solar power industry was longer than the lifespan of the product.

So there you have it. I'm not sure if I would have made it long before getting assassinated by some disgruntled welfare recipient, but it would have been worth it.
 

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I agree with #2 the most

The Bailout was Welfare for the Rich...on a massive scale...The fact the bailout happened that quickly, with government approval really made me wonder what was up.

Banks...Not the people, not the elected political leaders. Banks fund both sides of elections, bank fund both sides of war. There like Don King

The Fed and the IRS created at the same time. Read a bit about Jeckyl Island and how this system came to be

You are more likely to be assisinated by bank people than a disgruntled welfare recipient See Garfield, Lincoln, and Kennedy executive order 11110 and Jackson survived multiple attempts , "I killed the bank"
 

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Crapshoot said:
I agree with #2 the most

The Bailout was Welfare for the Rich...on a massive scale...The fact the bailout happened that quickly, with government approval really made me wonder what was up.

Banks...Not the people, not the elected political leaders. Banks fund both sides of elections, bank fund both sides of war. There like Don King

The Fed and the IRS created at the same time. Read a bit about Jeckyl Island and how this system came to be

You are more likely to be assisinated by bank people than a disgruntled welfare recipient See Garfield, Lincoln, and Kennedy executive order 11110 and Jackson survived multiple attempts , "I killed the bank"
That's cigar worthy! :4go43k2_th:
 

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Im not saying the bank system is "evil"......Its the best business I could think of....No Inventory, create money out of nothing then get interest on what you created.......Its like if someone paid for all my bowel movements.

The problem I see is it creates a culture of dependancy....dependant on the banks and government....How can anyone really be free if you are completely dependant?

The people who get elected are always those who promises the most free stuff and dont force accountability, budget or structure

QE is just printing money, so if you can just print money...why work? And that philosophy just trickles down to the entire population as a whole

But I think thats the point....a population depending on the goverenment, content just enough to NOT overthrow the government
 

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Crapshoot said:
I just read the Fed would likely announce next week end of QE3 and no QE4
Well since the market direction makes little sense these days, many are brushing the QE4 issue off, saying, "it's an election year", and the October sell off seems to have been shrugged off - I guess we're gold - LOL. And there's this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZBoP2aBbuw

Damned if we do, ...
 

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Great Link!!!!!!

Guy makes total sense to me "You can't take away the drugs and expect the market to stay high"

All those graphs that show the market rise with QE and Fall with removal of QE.......No one else can buy Bonds so $$$$$ HAS to go into the Market

The Fed has no play but to continue to QE........The economy is on TOTAL government life support.

Fundamentally....IMHO this market is totally screwed, but Technically....there's money to be made

The problem is not going away, its just postponed The question is for how long? How long can you print until the US Dollar crashes?

It's happened in other countries, yet we act like we are immune to it

The host lady's voice when she said..."wait you're saying a bear market is coming?" (the disbelief in her voice, as if the market will do nothing but go up, as if QE resulted in a strong, sound economy) is just shocking to me

Or we could go to war against "Bad communist China" and never pay them back and control their resources

Ironically....I think Schiff is a banking name
 

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It's coming but when is the question. There's been a lot of smart money managers who lost a lot of money betting against the market in the last several years. "Artificial growth" derived by printing money is a recipe for disaster no matter how you look at it.

This is the reason I've been telling my TOF brothers that it's important to learn about tactical investing. There are two types of tactical management. There's constrained and unconstrained.
Tactical constrained allows the manager to make moderate allocation moves (example: moving from 60% Equity to 40%).
Tactical unconstrained allows the manager to make aggressive moves in and out of the market - and they utilize hedging strategies. They can go from 100% equities to 0% if they feel the market is going to continue down or crash.
Talk to your advisor and see if he/she is employing any tactical strategies for your long term investments... If he's a bank advisor, chances are he is extremely limited on what he's allowed to sell. If he's with a wirehouse or independent, he will have every resource at his fingertips.
 

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No QE4... I'm a little surprised how well the market took it, but after listening to a few bond manager commentaries on the subject, I guess it makes sense.

I hope they don't rush to increase the discount rate and the fed funds rate for a while. I also hope Europe pulls out of this funk they're in. They need some serious austerity measures implemented, which means they need to cut a great deal of their social programs and entitlements.

Is it a paradox or an example of insanity that, though the European social programs continue to bankrupt them, the Obama admin continues down the very path that is killing Europe? Or is it simply a liberal disdain for the wealthy capitalists that encourages this seemingly destructive behavior?
 

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No QE4...That suprises me......Im also surprised the market didnt take a dump....Im still scared shartless of this market

What about the funk Japan is in

Found some more Schiff videos...I agree with about everything he says
 

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What can we read into the fact the DJIA is approaching 18,000 on volume of 168M. For comparision I looked at a number for Jan 2012 Volume was 3B in 2009 7Bil and 2006 5 Bil..........So high on such light volume
 

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Very observant Brian. This is the first thing I look at when a stock starts to trend up or down.
If a stock goes up it signals that more people are wanting to own it than not and vice versa. However, volume needs to be proportionate with the price movement. As they say, "volume goes with the trend". If a stock price, or index in this case, makes a move up or down on low volume it shows low conviction and really means nothing to a long term investor.
 
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