Dow @ 17,000...

pitdog

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Investing is a crazy thing. People who are greedy or fearful need to stay in the bank. Greedy people think they're missing out, so they buy at the high and sell when the market corrects. Scared people buy the wrong investment and sell it low because they think they will lose it all. People who stay the course and invest in a tactical and flexible portfolio fair the best.

A couple sayings I live by:
"Don't be like a follower like sheep because sheep get slaughtered - and when they're bleeding in the streets, scoop up the blood with buckets"
"Buy after everyone sells and sell when everyone at the cocktail party is braging about their gains".

Clients who I all but begged to go back into the market back in March of 2009 are now wanting to invest. These are the same folks who always sell low and buy high and never take my advice. It's hard to turn the money down but it's just too painful to see such a poor emotional decision happen on my watch. I told them to go back to their 1% CD.

I'm still in a defensive position these days and I hope I'm dead wrong. Tactical flexible management is a prudent choice IMO.

So, how high do you all think it will go before the next 1000+ point correction? Anyone can guess it right, lets see who's the closest.

I'll say 17,300



Disclaimer: This is in no way a recommendation to buy or sell stocks,bonds or real estate, which have the possibility to lose the principal amount invested. This post is strictly for entertainment and I do not endorse investing or selling stocks, bonds or real estate. My opinions on the market are not backed by any thing other than my best guess, which could be dead wrong. Everything I said in this post is a lie and you will lose everything you own if you follow me... There, that should cover me for liability. :smiley-wnk-yellow:
 

API

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pitdog said:
So, how high do you all think it will go before the next 1000+ point correction? Anyone can guess it right, lets see who's the closest.

I'll say 17,300
Ya know what... After an inevitable "correction", it will be off and running again. Count on it. :smiley_prayin_ani:
 

STEVE IN SOCAL

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We're in it for the long haul. Good and bad on 17k...our portfolio is bursting at the seems, but we're about 3 years til the wife hangs it up, at the earliest. I expect a 2k correction any time now....probably just wait it out. We're knocking at the door of the AMT and selling now would put us squarely in it.
My wife managed her sisters money, and when the dow hit 6,500, her sister wanted to sell her stock. My wife couldn't talk her out of it. Wonder if she looks at the dow now and says....dayum.
 

Maverick

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I'm putting 1200 a month now in my 401/457. Everytime I have got a step increase or raise I put that money in my 401k. I have 10/15 yrs before I can retire. I going back to school to get a nursing degree, so when I do retire I can start another career. When it's all said and done.

My plan is to retire completely @ 60/65. Have 2 pensions, social secruity (if there is such a thing by then) my my 401k.

Then promptly die 6 months after.
 

bigboarstopper

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I've got 67k in my 457b. I look at it this way, if I don't lose any of the money I've actually put into the market then everything else is a bonus. There's money to be made if the market takes a dump anyhow. After the market went down in 07 I increased my monthly contribution and bought stocks even cheaper. I'm probably going to start being more conservative as the Dow rises and if and when it craps out again become more aggressive again. I've been very proactive in where my money has gone in my 457b in the last 10 years and making the adjustments when I have has worked well for me.
 

WinMag1

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I honestly never thought it would hit 16,000 without a major correction so I'm already in the toilet on guesswork.

On another investment, my brother got in on GoPro's IPO at their opening price of $24 per share the other day. Not sure exactly what happened other than the online investment firm he went through apparently oversold their allocation by a huge margin. As a result, the $2500 my brother committed for the purchase of shares prior to the IPO was adjusted by the investment firm because of the oversell and they only took a little over $300 from his account. So now instead of having 104 shares he only has 12. I haven't looked at it too closely myself rather going by what my brother is telling me but he says that thousands of people who committed huge amounts of money to purchase shares at the opening price are up in arms now because they ended up with only a fraction of what they intended to buy. GoPro



May as well add my own disclaimer: I am in no way advocating or suggesting investment of GoPro or any other stock for that matter. I am simply sharing a recent experience that my brother shared with me. I have absolutely no affiliation with, nor money invested in the aforementioned company.
 

pitdog

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Good going Mav! Folks who are adding money to their retirement accounts look at a correction as an opportunity. unless you own the Nikkei, which is at 15,000, down from 40,000 in 1990. A lot of people thought that would come back and they were sadly disappointed. 24 years of nothing... Can it happen here? No one can say for sure.
 

Skeet

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Steve took the advise you gave me years ago and have been very happy with my 401
 

pitdog

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Glad to hear it Skeet.

The theory of systematic investing is acquiring as many shares as possible. Once you retire, that's when you want the market go up. When I do 401k seminars, I show them how much more they benefit if the market drops and then recovers during the accumulation/funding phase vs. funding it at a fixed price, or worse, a steady incline. If you put an even amount each pay cycle and the market price drops, it's like buying the shares on sale. Those of you that have been funding since 2008 benefited greatly.

I know most of you know this, but if there's a chance a youngster is reading this, it might help him/her stay the course when things get ugly.
 

ilovesprig

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Stevo,

I was one of those guys that bailed when it hit 6500........Yes, I do say damn........I also know that I was retiring soon and was losing serious amounts of 401K money......Yep, I'd have more now, but I've been able to sleep quite nicely for the last 5 years....... :lol:
 

fishingkid

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I'm in the process of trying to figure out how to set up all my retirement stuff. Good stuff here guys keep it coming. This stuffs all new to me.
 

pitdog

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fishingkid said:
I'm in the process of trying to figure out how to set up all my retirement stuff. Good stuff here guys keep it coming. This stuffs all new to me.
Send me a copy of your investment choices and the plan details along with your age and I'll set you up. You'll owe me a diet coke some day in return.
 

STEVE IN SOCAL

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Steve...My wife's a wannabe investment guru. I'm sure she'll pick your brain next weekend. She handles all our investments, and does pretty good.

Errr...this was meant for pitters, not trig...sorry stevo
 

El Maton

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So you mean to tell me i can make money without having to work? :Reagan-hittin-head-ani:
 

pitdog

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We're getting close, the "odd-lotters" are diving into the market like flies on chit. Based on the odd-lot theory, this is the top of the rally (Odd-lotters always buy high and sell low).

"As Main Street gets in, Wall Street clears out" ~ Unknown
 

Coondog

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I really wish a 10% correction would happen ASAP.. Historically, we are way overdue. Get the fat off the table, pull the clients in from the ledge, and watch this thing continue to grow. I think this is going to be a long-term bull run that winds up breaking records..
 
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